Eli's guide to Brexit

Using betting markets to watch the Brexit drama unfold


A public service from

Research has shown that probabilities derived from betting markets are more accurate than polls at predicting political outcomes. For the purpose of convenience, this site lists estimated probabilities for Brexit-related events. It uses data from Betfair to perform the estimation.

Text in each table cell is shaded in proportion to a measure of liquidity in each market. Darker cells imply more confidence in the estimate.

Frequently asked questions

Why did you make this site?

For my own convenience and entertainment. Brexit drama is just incredible and I enjoy following it.

How can I help defray the costs of running this site?

You can donate via cryptocurrency below.